From Intuition to Evidence: A Data-Driven Approach

The Limits of Gut Feel

When teams face difficult problems, the instinct is often to rely on intuition. We go with our gut, draw on past experiences, and assume that what “feels right” will work again. But in complex systems—like software development—this approach often fails. What seems obvious turns out to be wrong, and what works best is rarely the first thing we’d expect.

The Momentum Agile Process recognizes this reality: if the solution were intuitive, you wouldn’t still have a problem. Instead of chasing gut feelings, Momentum emphasizes grounding team decisions in evidence. Data, not intuition, becomes the foundation for planning, execution, and improvement.

What Intuition Really Is

Intuition isn’t magic. It’s the sum total of our past experiences trained into a gut “feel” for a situation. When the problem we face is similar to what we’ve solved before, intuition is highly effective. We can make fast, accurate decisions without overthinking.

But when a problem is intractable—when the obvious approaches keep failing—it’s a signal that our intuition isn’t correctly trained for this situation. In these cases, intuition actively misleads us. We double down on the wrong choices because they “feel right,” even as the problem gets worse.

This is why effective solutions in complex systems are often counterintuitive. To break through, we need to step back, test our assumptions, and rely on data to guide us toward strategies our instincts would never suggest.

Building on Evidence

Momentum provides a framework for replacing intuition with evidence at every stage of the sprint:

Planning Based on Time

Story sizes aren’t guessed. They’re computed from observable ranges (1–2 days, 3–4 days, 5 days) tied directly to story points. This ensures planning starts with measurable expectations.

Tracking Actuals Daily

During stand-ups, teams record actual time spent on each story. This creates a clear line of evidence—when stories are on track, running late, or failing outright.

Retrospectives Grounded in Data

Instead of “what felt hard,” retrospectives focus on the actual outcomes: which stories took longer than planned, which finished faster, and what patterns emerge. Tactics are adjusted based on facts, not feelings.

Benefits of a Data-Driven Process

Teams that shift from intuition to evidence quickly see the advantages:

• Predictability: Sprints stop swinging between optimism and panic.
• Accountability: Data reveals reality without blame—problems are visible to everyone.
• Improvement: Each sprint adds new evidence, turning failures into actionable insights.
• Confidence: Leaders see problems addressed in real time, not hidden until the last minute.

Getting Started

Moving from intuition to evidence doesn’t require massive change overnight. Start simple:

• Size stories using time-based categories instead of gut-feel points.
• Record actuals each day to build a factual view of progress.
• In retrospectives, color-code outcomes (faster, on time, slower) to make patterns visible.

The more data you collect, the more reliable your decisions become. Over time, intuition fades into the background, replaced by a steady rhythm of evidence-based improvement.